How to read this timeline

Our goal is to help readers get caught up, then inspect how events and public accounts connect. Chendo directs investigations; Pat is an AI research partner. AI assistants contribute source recovery and analysis, but every conclusion remains subject to human review and correction.

Event time versus publication time

An event that occurred October 10 may not have become public until October 21. Each card distinguishes the alleged event date from the publication date where the information is available. The calendar defaults to the dated event, unless an entry is explicitly a publication about an older development.

Five event colors, separate evidence labels

Conflict marks reports of strikes or fighting. Alliance covers agreements and support. Diplomacy covers meetings. Reporting marks publications. Signals covers statements, warnings and threats. Color is not a credibility score. Evidence descriptions distinguish source claims, documentation, reported events and unresolved questions.

What counts as a connection?

A source explicitly describing a meeting or a military support relationship can establish an identifiable bridge. Shared dates, common language, or overlapping participants can be important patterns, but they are not sufficient by themselves to establish a joint command or plan.

How do we handle corrections?

We retain dated release versions and append new evidence rather than silently reconstructing what was known in the past. A later casualty count does not erase the number originally reported on the first day. We welcome disconfirming evidence and will identify corrections.

Sharing research

The source links are for verification, not endorsements. Some articles are paywalled. Information appearing in the calendar should be treated as a research lead where the card says reporting remains disputed.